October 2021

October 2021

 

When Centrus was set up, we and clients were still dealing with the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis. A seismic series of events which brought an abrupt end to 30 years or so of relatively benign economic and political conditions in the developed world.

In a book called “Ubiquity, Why Catastrophes Happen” Mark Buchanan asks us to imagine dropping one grain of sand after another onto a table. A pile develops until just one grain starts an avalanche. Most of the time it is a small one, but sometimes it builds up in a way which is hard to predict and one whole side of the pile slides down to the bottom. In a similar fashion, historians may look back at the GFC of 2008-2010 and see the crisis and associated policy responses as setting off a series of chain reactions, which from a 2021 perspective are still playing out.

The immediate policy medicine of public sector bail outs, massive QE and record low interest rates… Download full market update