November 2021

November 2021

We held our quarterly webinar in late October, after the September CPI numbers were published on 20th October. The anticipation of a very high inflation print didn’t completely come to pass at 3.1% it was only just over the level above which the Bank of England governor needs to write to the Chancellor to atone for their failure to keep within 1% of the 2% CPI target level. The more modest inflation print avoided putting associations in a difficult place given their charitable status and the perspective of many tenants facing tax and cost of living increases. Most seem likely, in our understanding, to pass the 3.1% on in full to most of their tenants.

However, the inflation story is unlikely to go away. Not least because the September index level was 112.4 up from 109.1 a year earlier, but in the context that the 109.1 level remained pretty flat for several months thereafter – it dipped down to 108.9 and then re-attained 109.1 five months later in February 2021. Any big movements between now and next February, and to a lesser extent beyond then, will produce bigger reported annual increases…Download the full Market Update